STEVE REID
Editor & Publisher
sreid@lbknews.com
As the first cold fronts of 2026 push northern travelers south, the tourism economy in Sarasota, St. Armands Circle, and Longboat Key is entering a defining season. Shaping up to be a year of “stabilized optimism,” the region is capitalizing on a quiet 2025 hurricane season and a massive consolidation of luxury inventory to pivot its strategy from volume to value.
While visitor headcounts are projected to remain strategically “flat”—a deliberate strategy by local tourism officials—economic yield is trending upward. This shift is driven by record-breaking capacity at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) and a coordinated elevation of the hospitality market that is effectively narrowing the gap with rival destination Naples.
The ‘Quiet Season’ Dividend
After the volatility of the 2024 hurricane season (Helene and Milton), which caused significant disruption, the relative calm of late 2025 has been a decisive economic factor. The absence of major storm impacts this past autumn allowed businesses to focus on capital improvements rather than emergency repairs, setting the stage for a confident, high-polish reopening.
“We are seeing what we call a ‘stabilized optimism,’” said a representative from Visit Sarasota County. “The quiet hurricane season in 2025 gave our barrier islands the breathing room they needed. We aren’t just ‘open’—we are upgraded.”
Aviation: The SRQ Boom
The strongest indicator of a healthy season comes from the tarmac. Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) has shattered previous records, with passenger traffic for the 2025 calendar year projecting to hit an all-time high of 4.5 million passengers, a massive leap from the 1.9 million seen in pre-pandemic 2019.
Data indicates that while drive-market traffic has softened slightly, fly-in traffic is surging. March 2025 set the tone early as the busiest month in the airport’s history (up nearly 8% year-over-year), and carriers have responded by maintaining capacity. The opening of the new five-gate Concourse A has been instrumental in handling this influx, facilitating new nonstop routes that are feeding high-spending visitors directly into Longboat and Lido Key resorts.
Market Consolidation: The Walsh Family Portfolio
The most significant structural shift in the local market is the dominance of the Opal Collection, owned by the Walsh family (Ocean Properties). Their portfolio now controls the premier inventory across Longboat and Lido Keys, creating a “resort corridor” that allows for coordinated yield management similar to corporate strategies seen in major urban centers.
By controlling the “Opal” assets on both keys, the group ensures that revenue stays within the same ecosystem, regardless of the traveler profile:
• The Resort at Longboat Key Club: Continuing as the volume and revenue anchor for the islands, this property has leveraged substantial renovations to its golf and marina facilities to attract corporate groups and extended-stay wealth, moving beyond the traditional vacationer.
• Zota Beach Resort: On Longboat Key, Zota has successfully pivoted to a contemporary boutique model. Since rebranding from a Hilton property, it is commanding rates competitive with top-tier Miami hotels, capitalizing on new nonstop flights from New York and Boston.
• Lido Beach Resort: Positioning itself as the premium family-centric option, this property is benefiting heavily from the spillover of the nearby St. Armands Circle renaissance.
• The Newcomer: Cirque St. Armands Beachside Hotel: The most buzzed-about addition is the Cirque St. Armands, which opened in early 2025. Now entering its first full peak season, the 135-room property pays homage to Sarasota’s Ringling circus heritage with Art Deco design. It fills a critical market gap for travelers seeking high-end “city-style” lodging within walking distance of the Circle’s dining scene.
Longboat Key: The “St. Regis Effect”
Complementing the Walsh portfolio is the headline driver for the 2026 season: the St. Regis Longboat Key Resort. With room rates frequently exceeding $1,000 per night, the property is generating outsized returns on the county’s 6% Tourist Development Tax (the “bed tax”).
“One suite at the St. Regis can generate the same tax revenue as a dozen budget rooms elsewhere,” noted a local hospitality analyst. This “luxury shift” allows the region to maintain economic impact numbers without overcrowding the beaches—a key goal for sustainable tourism in the county.
St. Armands Circle: A Commercial Renaissance
The commercial hub of St. Armands Circle is entering the busy season with fresh concepts that signal a complete recovery from past storm damage.
• Nōnnō Umberto (formerly Le Colonne): In a symbolic win for the Circle, the longstanding Italian staple Le Colonne reopened in January 2026 under the new name Nōnnō Umberto. The reopening, led by the next generation of the founding family, drew over 800 diners in its opening week, signaling strong pent-up demand.
• Tommy Bahama: After suffering storm damage, the iconic retailer and restaurant reinvested rather than retreating. The brand has reopened in a prominent new location (formerly the Shore restaurant space), upgrading its footprint and reaffirming confidence in the Circle’s commercial viability.
Regional Competitiveness: Sarasota vs. Naples
For the 2026 fiscal year, the Sarasota-Longboat cluster is aggressively challenging Naples for the Gulf Coast’s luxury market share. While Naples still commands the highest Average Daily Rate (ADR) in the region, Sarasota is winning on demographic shifts and accessibility.
• The Vibe Shift: Naples remains the epicenter of “refined tranquility” and golf-centric retirement wealth. In contrast, Sarasota is capturing the “active affluent”—travelers aged 40-60 who prioritize cultural density (opera, ballet, nightlife) alongside beach access.
• Logistics: The expansion of SRQ gives Sarasota a distinct advantage over Naples, which relies heavily on Fort Myers (RSW) for commercial traffic. The “convenience premium” of flying directly into Sarasota is allowing hotels to push rates higher.
• Product Diversity: The ability to pair a resort stay at the Longboat Key Club with the urban walkability of St. Armands (anchored by the Cirque hotel) provides a dual-experience value proposition that the more singular Naples market lacks.
Forecast: Value Over Volume
Heading into February and March—the traditional peak of the “snowbird” season—bookings remain strong for premium inventory. While budget travel faces headwinds from inflation, the Sarasota region’s pivot toward an affluent demographic appears to be insulating it from broader economic slowdowns.
“The recovery is in the rearview mirror,” said a St. Armands business owner. “We are now in growth mode.”
The strategy appears to be working. Sarasota and Longboat Key have successfully moved up-market, shedding the “budget beach” image for a polished, resort-driven identity led by the Opal Collection.
“We aren’t trying to be Naples,” said one Longboat Key general manager. “Naples is where you go to retire. Sarasota is where you go to live.”
