Both the State of Florida’s Resilient Florida Program and the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel have released updates this year on what sea level rise could look like for our region (based on the St. Petersburg tide gauge). In April, the Florida Statewide Office of Resilience and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) updated their projections, adopting the NOAA Intermediate Low and Intermediate scenarios. In June, the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel released their projections, which include the Intermediate High scenario in addition to the two scenarios adopted by the state.
What’s the Difference?
The STATE recommends looking at the Intermediate Low (blue line) and Intermediate (orange line) scenarios. The TAMPA BAY CLIMATE SCIENCE ADVISORY PANEL recommends looking at all three scenarios shown below.
The difference between these recommendations in the near future is not as great compared to further out. For example, if in 2030, a municipality plans to build a new bridge with a life expectancy of 50 years:
• According to the State, they should plan for 1.1ft – 1.7ft* of sea level rise.
• According to the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel, they should plan for 1.1ft – 2.8ft of sea level rise.
This is a difference of about a foot, which is significant and makes long-term planning a challenge.
Is One Scenario More Likely Than the Others?
This is the million-dollar question. However, there are probabilities associated with each scenario based on how likely it is that sea level rise will exceed what’s predicted if temperatures rise by 3°C by 2100. Both the State of Florida and the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel report that:
• For the Intermediate Low (blue line) scenario, there is an 82% chance that sea levels will be HIGHER than what this scenario predicts.
• For the Intermediate (orange line) scenario, there is a 5% chance that sea levels will be HIGHER than what this scenario predicts.
• For the Intermediate High (red line) scenario, there is less than a 1% chance that sea levels will be HIGHER than what this scenario predicts.
Main Takeaways
• State and regional agencies and organizations agree that climate change and sea level rise are happening now and will continue to happen. In fact, our area has already seen 9.6 inches of sea level rise since 1947.
• Our area will need to continue talking about these issues across broad audiences so that we can appropriately respond and maintain the economic and quality of life benefits our coastal region provides.
Before these updated estimates were released, SBEP also shared information on recent trends in sea level rise, noting that the rate of sea level rise in recent years is potentially increasing to about 3 inches per decade, which is very similar to the average of the two FDEP-derived estimates, which average 2.8 inches per decade over the next 50 years.
– Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
